A few weeks ago, an excellent basketball-focused analytics site called Nylon Calculus released a new statistic that they call "True Usage". If you're familiar with some of the more traditional advanced statistics in basketball, the regular usage statistic analyzes how many scoring attempts a player puts up over the course of the game, divided by the overall offensive possessions while the player is on court. While this manages to capture how much a player controls the scoring offensively, but only in the sense that he directly is the one scoring points.
The "True Usage" statistic aims to look more deeply into how a player affects the entire offense, including assisted baskets, turnovers, scoring, and how many touches all together a player has during his time on the court. In a sense, true usage captures the total offensive production of a player, as opposed to the usage in scoring. For example, if we look at the Cavaliers in 2013-2014, the starters with the highest usage percentage were Kyrie and Dion (which should be of little surprise to just about anyone that watched last year). It makes quite a bit of sense, given that both players are ball dominant and scoring-centric (especially given the team had no shooters to support them on the perimeter). If we look at true usage though, Kyrie and Dion still lead the ranks, but Kyrie is much more effective than Dion.
The "True Usage" statistic aims to look more deeply into how a player affects the entire offense, including assisted baskets, turnovers, scoring, and how many touches all together a player has during his time on the court. In a sense, true usage captures the total offensive production of a player, as opposed to the usage in scoring. For example, if we look at the Cavaliers in 2013-2014, the starters with the highest usage percentage were Kyrie and Dion (which should be of little surprise to just about anyone that watched last year). It makes quite a bit of sense, given that both players are ball dominant and scoring-centric (especially given the team had no shooters to support them on the perimeter). If we look at true usage though, Kyrie and Dion still lead the ranks, but Kyrie is much more effective than Dion.
It's worth noting that the starting lineup for the Cavs changed so drastically over the course of the year, I felt it necessary to use the five players that were most indicative of the top five on the roster for the majority of the year. Overall, if you take a look at the team as a whole, the Cavs have a fairly typical spread of usage, with somewhat of a hierarchy from Kyrie down to Tristan. There are a few noteworthy stats to look at in this table though:
- Kyrie is far and away the best player on the court, and it really isn't close. His True Usage is through the roof, true turnovers are relatively low, assist usage is incredibly high, and he actually passes the ball much more than you would expect. I would suspect that given the increase in talent this upcoming year, his assist numbers will continue to increase. Furthermore, from his touch ending possession rate, it's evident he's looking to assist more than looking to score. He can fill whichever role necessary, but he's looking to be the prototypical point guard.
- Tristan really struggles to do much more than shoot the ball or turn it over. His assist usage is 1/3 of the next highest player on the court and his turnover ratio is extremely high for a non-ball-handler (for perspective, Thompson's is higher than Dion's). Furthermore, almost 50% of the touches he gets on the ball are either a shot or a turnover (touches ending possession). For a player that's shooting less than 50% from the floor, that's a really bad sign.
- Like we all knew, Anderson is quite special for a big. He passes almost as well as a guard, doesn't turn the ball over, and doesn't need many touches to be effective. If he can stay healthy, he'll be a big boost to this team next year.
- Dion is almost always looking to be a direct influence in a possession. Between having the lowest passes per shot and having the second highest touches ending possession and passes leading to assist opportunities, Dion either wants to score or get an assist. This is the 6th man mentality entirely, and it will be interesting to watch and see if he can alter his game to be more of a utility cog in this team.
It shouldn't be any shock that the Cavs team for the 2014-2015 season will look much different from last year's team. Factoring in Love, James, and a variety of role players, the Cavs jumped from a team barely able to make the playoffs to one expected to win the title. Given the new information from Jason Lloyd that we mentioned in an article earlier this week (here), we've replaced Andy with Tristan at center, Luol with LBJ, and Tristan with Love. We'll see how long this lineup lasts, but this is probably our best guess as to what the Cavs will start the year with:
Now, before getting too deep into this, please remember that Love and LeBron were the two workhorses on their respective teams and carried a gigantic offensive load. It's to be expected that the usage rates for just about every player will drop, though the true usage statistic may be able to remain relatively high, given there should be far more assists. Let's go into the breakdown of the 2014-2015 year:
- Love and LeBron bring amazing passing. We knew that, but it's fully quantified here. LeBron is better than any other player either on this year's team or last year's that was not named Kyrie Irving. Not to mention, he manages to find players for legitimate assists a majority of the time.
- Aside from Tristan, we have 4 starters who previously had 40%+ true usage. Not sustainable, but still remarkably impressive. What it insinuates though is that each of those players have the ability to positively impact the offense either through scoring or assisting others. We will get to see how this compares further on.
- The averages for this team jumped greatly in some positive categories, but also increased in turnovers. That's expected, given there are now three primary ball-handlers, as opposed to the two that were on the floor last year. The jump in assist usage, true usage, and passes ending in assist opportunities will be crucial to improving the flow of the offense.
- Thompson may not last long in the starting lineup. It's obvious that Andy would fit alongside the rest much better. Dion may face the same fate, given the amount of players that want the ball in their hands at the same time. Kyrie has shown that he can emphasize passing, but Dion has not been incredibly successful at it and Tristan rarely passes unless absolutely necessary.
So now that we've thoroughly explored how much better this team is than last year, how exactly does it stack up with the other contenders for the title? Well, lucky for you I've put that together for you as well!
Overall, the Cavs starting lineup from last year actually wasn't nearly as poor as it was made out to be. The lack of consistency in their starting line, as well as their terrible bench were where they failed. What should come as a shock to no one is that the Spurs are heads and shoulders above every other contender. Popovich is a genius, and hopefully Blatt can come close to the level of expertise that Pop brings. The Thunder may be the most shocking team in terms of rank and percent of the average, but with Perkins and Sefalosha being key parts of this equation, on particularly poor years, it makes sense. The Heat's numbers are pretty indicative of the team that they had last year, comprised of two to three stars and a bunch of cheap cogs to fill in.
When we look at the upcoming season, the Cavs match up incredibly well with likely the last two series on their way to win a NBA championship: the Spurs and the Bulls. The Cavs roster is comparable in almost every category other than touches per shot and passes per shot, which will most likely increase anyways given there are so many talented players on the roster. If Blatt can bring all of the pieces together and make them work nearly as well as the Spurs did last season, this team should be one to remember for years to come.
When we look at the upcoming season, the Cavs match up incredibly well with likely the last two series on their way to win a NBA championship: the Spurs and the Bulls. The Cavs roster is comparable in almost every category other than touches per shot and passes per shot, which will most likely increase anyways given there are so many talented players on the roster. If Blatt can bring all of the pieces together and make them work nearly as well as the Spurs did last season, this team should be one to remember for years to come.